Romania's eCommerce market reached approximately EUR 8.1 billion in 2025 and could exceed EUR 8.5 billion in 2026, but growth is entering a more competitive and less predictable phase than in previous years, according to the MerchantPro eCommerce Insights 2026 report released on Thursday.
According to the source, inflation, pressure from international marketplaces, changing consumer behaviour and the growing impact of AI on product discovery and conversions are reshaping competition in the local online commerce sector.
MerchantPro's analysis shows that the estimated market growth rate was around 6% in 2025, in a context where transaction volumes stagnated, while a 5% increase is expected in 2026, amid more cautious consumption, declining confidence and structural changes in the digital ecosystem.
Market growth this year could be supported by the wider adoption of online shopping and the maturation of the experience offered by retailers, through investments in technology, personalisation and conversion optimisation. At the same time, the introduction of taxes on non-EU platforms, both locally and at European level, could reduce part of their cost advantage.
On the other hand, the analysis shows that risks remain significant: pressure on consumer budgets, socio-economic and political uncertainty, as well as the growing market share of external platforms may limit the pace of development of local online commerce.
The MerchantPro Compass analysis, based on the evolution of stores active on the platform, confirms the same market dynamics in 2025. The data indicate an average increase in order value of 6.3%, in line with the estimated 6% market growth, while the number of transactions rose by only 0.8%, suggesting growth driven mainly by higher average basket values rather than significantly higher volumes. In the first half of the year, transaction volumes decreased by 0.29%, while in the second half they recorded a modest increase of 1.66%.
At the same time, the analysis highlights a market with uneven development and dynamics: segments such as Electro & IT (+21%) or Pharma (+65%) posted strong growth, while categories such as Fashion (-10.3%) or children's products (-12%) felt the pressure of external competition and changing consumer behaviour.
"The real focus is shifting from raw growth to value control and the ability of local players to remain competitive in an ecosystem increasingly dominated by marketplaces and AI. In 2026, the differentiating factors will be operational efficiency, data and the ability to build loyalty," said MerchantPro CEO Arthur Radulescu, as cited in the report presentation.
Romania's digital economic base has steadily expanded, and with 95.1% internet penetration according to the National Institute of Statistics, access to the internet is no longer a barrier to online commerce. Trust in the eCommerce ecosystem is becoming a key factor for market development.
Data from the MerchantPro Insights 2026 report show that artificial intelligence is beginning to play an increasingly important role in product discovery and conversion optimisation.
The MerchantPro Insights analysis shows that generalist marketplaces dominate online traffic rankings, with eMAG, Trendyol and Temu among the platforms attracting the largest share of user visits. The expansion of global platforms is also visible at European level. In the first half of 2025, around 25% of EU consumers made at least one purchase on Temu, according to data cited in the report. In Romania, the platform reached approximately 4.7 million monthly active users, while Trendyol surpassed around 1.3 million buyers, strengthening its presence on the local market and ranking second among the most visited online stores in Romania.
MerchantPro, a project of ShopMania Net, is a SaaS eCommerce platform dedicated to online stores.
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