Romanian managers expect all-out sharp business decline for next three months

Romanian managers are expecting a sharp decline in business in all sectors of the economy for the next three months, a dip in the number of employees in all sectors of the economy and an increase in retail prices, according to a survey released by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) on Tuesday.

In the business survey of April 2020, the managers in the manufacturing industry expect for the next three months a sharp decrease in production volume, short-term balance percentage -70%.

"Among the activities that will witness the most significant decreases, there are the manufacture of coke oven products and products obtained from crude oil processing (-97%) and the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (-91%). The manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations should see relative stability (-4%). Regarding the number of employees, a decrease is to be expected of 40% overall in the manufacturing industry. Industrial prices should record relative stability over the next three months (0%)," reads the release.

According to the April 2020 estimates, the construction business should also undergo a sharp decrease in production volume for the next three months (-57%). Managers estimate the decrease in the number of employees at -40%.

As far as prices of construction works are concerned, a moderate decrease is to be expected (-10%).

In the retail trade sector, the managers are bracing for decreases in activity (-58%). The volume of business orders to suppliers of goods should also be down (-35%).

Employers forecast a decrease in the number of employees for the next three months (-25%).

Retail prices should also increase (+16%).

According to April 2020 estimates, the demand for services (turnover) will decline sharply in the next three months (-62%). The biggest decreases will be reported in art creation and performance (- 100%), followed by of hotels and other accommodation facilities (- 99%), tourist agencies and tour operators (- 97%) and sports and leisure activities (- 96%). In the services sector, the number of employees is estimated to decrease (- 37%).

According to the managers' opinion, the selling or invoicing prices of the services will tend to decrease moderately (-14%).

INS says that the short term balance reflected by the survey indicates the perception of business managers on the dynamics of a phenomenon that should not be confused with the rate of increase or decrease of any statistical indicator produced by the INS. The short-term percentage balance is the difference between the percentage of managers who chose the positive version of the phenomenon and the percentage of those who indicated the negative version, as follows: up to ą 5% relative stability; ą 6% to ą 15% moderate increase or moderate decrease, respectively; ą 16% to ą 40% increase or decrease, respectively; over ą 40% sharp increase or decrease, respectively.