Farmers are beginning to abandon agricultural works, particularly ploughing, due to high costs as diesel prices approach 10 lei per litre. A lack of liquidity means investments of 1,300-1,800 lei per hectare can no longer be recovered, which could lead to up to 10-30% of land remaining unutilised and a decline in agricultural output, according to an analysis by the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI).
"Farmers are making a conscious decision to stop working the land: 'I can no longer invest 1,300-1,800 lei/hectare into a task that offers no return.' It isn't being shown on television, there is no panic in the markets, and shelves aren't empty, but something far more serious is happening in the fields: Romania is starting to produce less, not because it cannot, but because it is no longer worth it. And it all stems from one variable: diesel," explained AEI President Dumitru Chisalita.
According to the expert, spring ploughing normally takes place in February (weather permitting, though very rarely), in March - the optimal period - and, at the latest, during the first half of April.
"After 15 April, it is already agronomically risky, and after the end of April, it is no longer worth ploughing for spring crops. Correlating the area that needs to be ploughed with the price of diesel, we estimate that, compared to works carried out in 2025, only 70-75% will be completed in March 2026, 10-15% in the first pa rt of April, and less than 5% after 15 April. In total, 10-30% of the surface area will not be worked at all due to rising diesel prices and a lack of financing resources," the specialist noted.
Consequently, while agriculture is not facing a total collapse, it is becoming more fragile, the author emphasises.
"Romania is not entering a state of agricultural collapse, but rather one of compromise, where works are reduced to a minimum. However, every saving comes with a hidden cost - a greater dependency on weather conditions. According to estimates in specialist literature, crop production falls by 1-4% in normal scenarios and can reach minus 15% or more if drought occurs. The effect is not linear, but cumulative," added Dumitru Chisalita.
He warns that it is not just ploughing, but the entire chain of agricultural operations that is influenced by diesel prices; there is a risk that land already worked may be abandoned or that technological stages may not be completed.
Thus, the problem does not stem solely from the fields, but from the entire economic chain.
"The real issue is not that we are producing slightly less, but that all links in the chain are increasing in price simultaneously: diesel, transport, energy, and inputs. This brings us to the Romanian paradox: we produce enough, but we pay more than ever. We are not talking about shortages, but about a crisis of food accessibility," argues the AEI President.
In his opinion, price increases could follow for oil (20-40%), meat (15-30%), bread (10-25%), and vegetables (15-35%).
According to the data presented, the average expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages was 1,553 lei per household per month in the third quarter of 2025, and food inflation remains high. However, the pass-through of rising diesel costs into prices is not total, being mitigated by support granted to farmers (2.697 lei/l) and hauliers (0.85 lei/l), as well as by the share of transport in the final cost, estimated at around 15%.
The greatest sensitivity will be felt in products such as oil, bread, dairy, meat, and vegetables; however, these trends indicate a more expensive food basket rather than a shortage.
Regarding the macroeconomic impact, agriculture represents approximately 2.5% of GDP, meaning the effects remain limited at an aggregate level but are highly visible in real terms.
Comentează