Statistics Institute revises slightly downwards to 4.5 pct its GDP growth estimate for Q2 2019

The National Institute of Statistics (INS) revised slightly downwards to 4.5 pct from 4.6 pct its estimates for the seasonally adjusted GDP growth in Q2 2019 compared to the same period of the year before, according to provisional data released on Thursday. 

The Gross Domestic Product - expressed as seasonally adjusted data - estimated for the second quarter of 2019 is slightly more than 256 billion lei in current prices. 

Estimates for the evolution of the unadjusted GDP remained unchanged compared to September, when INS published the first provisional data. Thus, in Q2 the GDP was 4.4 pct higher compared to Q2 2018 and 1 pct up from the previous quarter. The GDP estimated for Q2 2019 (unadjusted terms) was almost 240 billion lei in current prices. 

Q1 GDP growth data as adjusted terms also underwent a slight downward modification from 4.8 pct to 4.7 pct YoY, and from 4.7 pct to 4.6 pct as unadjusted terms. 

"The seasonally adjusted series of the quarterly GDP has been recalculated following the revision of estimates for Q2 2019, but there are no significant differences compared to the version published in release No. 219 of September 6, 2019," INS said. 

The GDP estimated for Q1 2019 was in excess of 507 billion lei in current prices as seasonally adjusted series, and almost 441 billion lei as unadjusted series. 

"Compared to the provisional version there were no changes in Q2 2019 in the dynamics of the GDP and of the gross added value; the amount of net tax on product decreased by 0.8 percentage points. The sectors to see more important changes in the gross added value are: construction (-0.8 percentage points); retail and wholesale; repair of cars and motorcycles; transportation and storage; hotels and restaurants (-0.2 percentage points)," INS said. 

As for GDP use, significant changes between the two estimates regarding the contribution to GDP growth were in expenditures for the final consumption of public administrations - from + 0.3 pct to + 2 pct - as a result of the volume increase from 101.6 pct to 111.6 pct, and the gross fixed capital formation (investments) - from + 3.7 pct to 3.9 pct, as a result of the volume increase from 118 pct to 118.9 pct. 

The World Bank on Wednesday revised its estimates for the 2019 advance of the Romanian economy upwards by 0.6 percentage points from its June 2019 forecast. 

The Bucharest authorities expect the Romanian economy to grow 5 percent this year.