Romania's economy advances 4 pct in Q1 2018

The Romanian economy advanced 4 percent in the first quarter of 2018 in unadjusted terms and 4.2 percent when seasonally adjusted, as against the same period of 2017, according to first estimates released on Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). 

Romania's Q1 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms was at the same level as in the fourth quarter of 2017. 

"As against the same quarter of 2017, the GDP grew by 4 percent in unadjusted terms and by 4.2 percent seasonally adjusted. The seasonally adjusted series of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product was recalculated as a result of the inclusion of estimates for the first quarter of 2018, with differences compared to the version published on April 5, 2018," INS says. 

Thus, the results of the first quarter of 2017, compared with the fourth quarter of 2016, were upwardly adjusted from 2 percent to 2.4 percent; those in the second quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, declined from 1.7 percent to 1.6 percent, and so did the third quarter of 2017 compared to the second quarter of 2017, from 2.4 percent to 2.2 percent; Q4 2017, compared with Q3 2017, was revised from 0.5 percent to 0.3 percent. 

The European Commission (EC) has maintained its estimates of growth in Romania's economy in 2018, at 4.5 percent, expecting a 3.9-percent advance in 2019, according to spring economic forecasts released on May 3 by the European Commission. 

The World Bank recently announced that Romania's economy will see a 5.1-percent gain in 2018, but warned that this growth is above potential. A 5-percent growth is also projected by the International Monetary Fund, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimates an increase of 4.6 percent in 2018 and 4.2 percent in 2019. 

The National Economic Projection Board (CNP) is expecting the economy's advance this year to be 6.1 percent, followed by increases of 5.7 percent in 2019 and 2020 and 5 percent in 2021. 

In 2017, the economy of Romania advanced 6.9 percent, y-o-y; it, rose by 4.8 percent in 2016, the highest rate since 2008, and in the year 2015 it advanced 3.9 percent.