Romania's illicit cigarette market rose by three percentage points in November 2025 to 12.6% of total consumption, up from 9.6% in September, marking the highest level of illegal cigarette trade in the past six years, according to research company Novel.
The average share of illicit trade in 2025 stood at 10.6%, compared with 9% in 2024, representing the steepest annual increase since 2014. As a result, Romania lost over EUR 500 million in tax revenues last year due to the black market in cigarettes.
"In November, increases in illicit trade were recorded in almost all regions of the country. The most significant rise was seen in western Romania, of over 10 percentage points, making it the most affected area, with a share of 20.8%. In Bucharest and Ilfov, the black market also increased by more than 8 percentage points, reaching 14.6%. In terms of product origin, Bulgaria remains the main source of Romania's illicit market, accounting for over 30%, despite a decline of 5.1 percentage points. The share of products originating from the Republic of Moldova rose by 5.4 percentage points to 23.8%. At the level of the full year 2025, the annual average share of products from Bulgaria stood at 31.4%, up 10.1 percentage points compared with 2024, while the share of products from Moldova was 17.3%, down 3.7 percentage points," said Novel Research CEO Marian Marcu.
Ileana Dumitru, Director for External Affairs for the South East Europe Area at BAT, warned that November data indicate an alarming increase in the illicit market for tobacco products, which reached 12.6% of total consumption, a new five-year high, likely to push the estimated annual average to 10.6% in 2025.
"The fight against illicit trade remains a major challenge for the authorities. November figures show an alarming rise in the black market for tobacco products, reaching 12.6% of the total, a new record for the past five years, which will lead to an estimated annual average of 10.6% in 2025. At the same time, the results of efforts to combat the black market are noteworthy: according to StopContrabanda.ro, authorities confiscated around 210 million cigarettes in 2025, with an estimated market value of about EUR 40 million. These figures clearly illustrate the scale and impact of the phenomenon and fully justify including the fight against smuggling as a priority in the 2025-2030 National Defence Strategy. However, this objective requires shared responsibility, both from regulators, by ensuring a balanced and predictable fiscal environment, and from the industry, which can support these efforts through resources and expertise, thereby contributing to budget revenues and fair competition," she said.
Antonio Vencesla, Director of Corporate Affairs and Communications at JTI Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria, warned that Romania's position on the EU's external border makes it particularly vulnerable, while proximity to an active conflict zone and lower prices in neighbouring non-EU countries continue to fuel smuggling, undermining the state budget and strengthening organised crime networks.
"In this context, any further increase in tobacco excise duties risks accelerating the growth of the illicit market. Illegal trade must be reflected in the implementation plan of the National Defence Strategy, and law-enforcement efforts need to be supported by predictable, balanced fiscal policies adapted to Romania's purchasing power," Vencesla said, adding that JTI contributed over EUR 1.3 billion to the state budget in 2024.
Roxana Pintea, Director of External Affairs at Philip Morris Romania, said the tobacco sector is strategic for Romania's economy, contributing around EUR 5 billion annually to the budget, tens of thousands of jobs and significant exports. "In this complex geopolitical context, illicit trade becomes an even more serious threat," she added.
Imperial Brands Romania Country Director Gerald Tijssen noted that despite enforcement efforts, illicit cigarette consumption continues to rise, driven by price differences, with illegal packs costing significantly less than legal ones. "Romania lost over EUR 500 million in tax revenues in 2025 due to the illicit cigarette market," he said.
According to Border Police chief Cornel Laurian Stoica, authorities confiscated about 6.2 million packs of cigarettes in the first 11 months of 2025, along with over 65 tonnes of loose tobacco, while the Romanian Police dismantled 18 criminal groups involved in smuggling.
Tobacco companies, classified as large taxpayers, contribute more than RON 22 billion annually to the state budget through excise duties, VAT and other taxes.
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