The price of diesel in Romania could rise over the next two weeks to around 9.78 lei per litre, as the higher oil and diesel quotations recorded in recent weeks have not yet been fully reflected in pump prices, according to an analysis carried out by the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI).
According to the same source, fuel prices at the pump reflect past developments in the oil market due to delays within the logistical chain.
'Pump prices reflect past costs, not developments from the last few days. If oil became cheaper today, the effect cannot be seen immediately at petrol stations because the diesel currently being sold was already produced or imported at previously established prices (...) The real issue, however, is not today's price, but the one that is yet to come. If we apply the same logic of price transmission throughout the oil supply chain, the higher diesel and oil quotations from recent weeks have not yet been fully reflected in the final price in Romania. In practice, the market is in the midst of an adjustment process. Based on the formula correlating the ARA diesel quotation, the Brent crude oil price and the domestic fiscal structure, it results that over the next approximately two weeks the diesel price could theoretically rise, in the absence of any state-company agreements, to around 9.78 lei per litre,' explained Dumitru Chisalita in the analysis sent on Thursday.
According to calculations carried out by AEI specialists, the resulting diesel value for 12 March 2026, using the margins applied in recent days, is approximately 8.81 lei per litre, a level that is reflected, with minor regional variations, in pump prices.
'In recent days, international oil quotations have fallen, and consumers perceive this as a signal that prices at the pump should also fall. In reality, precisely during this period, diesel in Romania continues to become more expensive,' the author of the analysis argues.
Thus, if oil has become cheaper today, the effect cannot be seen immediately at petrol stations because the diesel currently being sold was already produced or imported at previously established prices.
'In other words, the fuel market operates with inertia. The paradox is that this very inertia produces the greatest tensions in public perception. When oil prices rise, consumers quickly see price increases at the pump. When oil prices fall, the effect is delayed, and this difference in pace creates the impression that price reductions are never passed on as quickly as price increases. In reality, the transmission does occur, but with the delay specific to the oil supply chain. If the downward trend in oil prices continues, the effects will also reach fuel prices, but only after several weeks,' the analysis also notes.
Until then, what we see at the pump is merely the echo of yesterday's market. This gap between economic reality and public perception is one of the reasons why fuel prices remain one of the most sensitive economic issues in Romania, the document also states.
Comentează