Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator slightly up in April

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania slightly grew in April, by 1.9 points, up to 49.5 points, compared with the previous month, although it dropped 11.3 points compared with the same month last year, a release of the association of professionals in investments informed on Monday. 

According to this source, the evolution was due to both components of the Indicator. 

Thus, in April 2018, the current conditions indicator increased by 2.2 points against the previous month, up to 66.4 points. Compared with the similar month of 2017, the Current Conditions Indicator went down 9.6 points. 

The anticipations indicator rose by 1.7 points, up to 41.4 points, but it dropped by 12.1 points compared to April 2017. 

With regard to the euro/leu exchange rate, around 80% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared with the present value). Thus the average value of expectations for the 6-month horizon is 4.7106 (average value 4.7000), while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected rate is 4.7540 (average 4.7300). 

Also, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2019 / April 2018) recorded an average of 4.55% (average 4.50%). 

"It is worth mentioning that the projections of the increase in the interest rates (against the current values) to the leu, both for the short-term (three months) and the medium-term (5 years), 96% and 92% respectively of the participants in the poll anticipating this evolution. Thus, the average ROBOR with 3-month maturity anticipated after 12-months is 3.20% (average 3.00%) and the yield of sovereign bonds denominated in lei with a maturity of 5 years is 4.84% (average 4.80%). As a result, real short-term interest rates are anticipated for short-term maturities," CFA Romania said. 

CFA Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator was launched by CFA Romania in May 2011 and is an indicator through which the association wishes to quantify the financial analysts' forecasts about the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. Also, the survey based on which the indicator is calculated also includes questions about the assessment of the current macroeconomic conditions. 

CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, mostly holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA).