The reduction of Romania's trade deficit in 2025 was driven mainly by a slowdown in imports and greater financial caution among companies, rather than by a structural improvement in external competitiveness,while the relative stability of the exchange rate masked persistent currency pressures, according to a specialist analysis based on data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
"Last year's lesson, based on the evolution of Romania's trade balance, is that postponing adjustments does not eliminate risk, but concentrates it. In 2026, the key difference will be companies' ability to understand their real foreign-exchange exposure and to manage it actively, before pressure is fully reflected in costs and margins," said Teofil Stanculea, Commercial Director of Akcenta in Romania, as quoted in the statement.
The INS data for 2025, published on Monday, 9 February, confirm a slow but visible adjustment in Romania's international trade, the research shows.
"FOB exports totalled EUR 96.6 billion (+4.2% compared with 2024), while CIF imports reached EUR 129.4 billion (+2.6%). The trade balance deficit narrowed to EUR 32.7 billion, 2% below the 2024 level. The reduction in the deficit does not indicate a structural shift in competitiveness, but rather an effect of slowing imports, amid cost pressures, exchange-rate developments and financial caution in the second half of the year. The year-end confirms this dynamic: in December 2025, exports rose by 9.4% year on year, while imports fell slightly by 0.4%, contributing to a moderation of the monthly deficit," the document notes.
According to the cited source, 2025 was a year of reconfiguration of Romania's international trade relations.
The December figures and the cumulative data for the whole of 2025 need to be read beyond absolute levels. The relevant information lies in differences in pace, the structure of flows and adjustment mechanisms, the study adds.
The main key indicator is the relationship between the dynamics of exports and imports. In 2025, exports increased by 4.2% and imports by 2.6%, which explains the reduction of the annual trade deficit to EUR 32.7 billion.
"This development suggests an economy in which domestic demand is showing signs of moderation, but remains structurally dependent on imports, especially for intermediate goods and high value-added products. Analysing December data in isolation, an end of year emerges that concentrated postponed commercial decisions, inventory corrections and cash-flow adjustments," the specialists point out.
The INS data indicate a slight year-on-year contraction in imports in December 2025, signalling cost pressure and a more defensive approach by companies. At the same time, the positive dynamics of exports point to still-active external demand, but insufficient to change the underlying structure of the trade balance.
The absolute level of the deficit remains decisive, however. A deficit of over EUR 30 billion implies a structural demand for foreign currency, directly influencing costs, margins and financial risks for import-export companies.
"Romania's external competitiveness did not change significantly in 2025," Teofil Stanculea believes.
Overall, 2025 confirms active but structurally vulnerable international trade. The high share of trade with the European Union - 71.3% of exports and 72.1% of imports - shows deep integration into the European economic cycle.
"While this offers relative stability, dependence on the euro area limits the ability of Romanian companies to diversify their offer during periods of broad-based demand slowdown. The structure of exports is dominated by machinery and transport equipment (46.6%) and other manufactured goods, reflecting Romania's integration into regional production chains," the cited source specifies.
At the same time, the structure of imports confirms dependence on intermediate goods, energy and chemical products, with a direct impact on sensitivity to the exchange rate and external costs.
"What we see in Romania is not an isolated case. The same combination of a high trade deficit, import dependence and currency pressure also appears in other Central European economies such as the Czech Republic, Poland or Slovakia. The differences have less to do with direction and more with speed: all these markets react to the same shocks - costs, exchange rates, external demand - but with different tools and degrees of flexibility," Stanculea notes.
From a macro perspective, the relationship between the trade deficit and the exchange rate remains central. The relative stability of the euro/leu in 2025 does not necessarily mean a natural balancing of trade flows, but rather a tightly managed framework that dampens short-term volatility without eliminating structural pressures.
According to the analysis, 2025 marked the crossing of an exchange-rate threshold of major economic and psychological significance: the euro/leu rate moved above 5.00 lei. This moment amplified cost pressures for import-dependent companies and influenced consumption and procurement behaviour.
"The crossing of the 5.00 lei per euro threshold came late in Romania, after a prolonged period of administratively managed exchange-rate stability. Repeated interventions by the National Bank of Romania limited short-term volatility, but postponed the adjustment perceived by companies," Stanculea said.
She argues that, for the business environment, this meant an accumulation of pressure: costs rose gradually, and the moment the psychological threshold was breached had a disproportionate impact on economic sentiment.
"Romania imports large volumes of consumer goods and intermediate products from the euro area. Crossing the 5.00 lei threshold immediately increased procurement costs," the analysis shows.
The INS data suggest that this exchange-rate shock contributed to a moderation of domestic consumption in the second half of the year, reflected in slower import growth and a relative reduction in the trade deficit.
"Although, in theory, a weaker leu should have supported exports, the structure of Romanian industry - dependent on imported inputs - limited this benefit. Rising production costs offset a significant part of the exchange-rate advantage," the document further notes.
In 2025, the strengthening of the dollar against the euro directly influenced the cost of dollar-denominated imports, particularly energy and raw materials, maintaining pressure on the trade balance even as volumes declined.
Entering 2026, Romanian companies find themselves in a context where currency risk is no longer an abstract variable, but a direct factor of cost and decision-making.
"The experience of 2025 showed that the stability of the euro/leu exchange rate can mask real pressures, which gradually accumulate in balance sheets and price structures until adjustment becomes inevitable. For the current year, market expectations indicate continued volatility in the euro/leu pair, which will continue to influence the cost of dollar-denominated imports - energy, raw materials and intermediate goods," the document adds.
In this context, expectations for 2026 point to the euro/leu being maintained within a relatively stable range, but with an asymmetric risk towards depreciation, turning the exchange rate from a macro variable into an operational cost factor. For companies, active management of currency risk becomes an essential component of commercial and financial decision-making, not merely a defensive reaction, the research concludes.
Akcenta CZ is one of the leading foreign exchange operators on the Czech market and in Central Europe, active in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania.
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