Annual inflation rate falls to 8.8% in September 2023

The annual inflation rate fell in September to 8.8%, from 9.4% in August, as food prices rose 10.36%, non-food prices 6.68% and services costs went up 12.10%, according to data the National Institute of Statistics (INS) published on Thursday.

In September, compared to August, the inflation rate was 0.79%. The monthly average inflation rate in the first nine months of this year was 0.6%.

"The year-to-date inflation rate (September 2023 compared to December 2022) is 5.7%. The annual inflation rate in September 2023 compared to September 2022 stands at 8.8%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (October 2022 - September 2023) compared to the previous 12 months (October 2021 - September 2022) is 12.6%," the INS says.

According to the quoted source, the harmonised index of consumer prices in September 2023 compared to August 2023 is 100.82%. The annual inflation rate in September 2023 compared to September 2022 calculated on the basis of the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is 9.2%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (October 2022 - September 2023) compared to the previous 12 months (October 2021 - September 2022) determined on the basis of the HICP is 11.4%.

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) reported in early October that, according to current assessments, the annual inflation rate will continue to decline until the end of this year in line with the latest medium-term forecast (August 2023), mainly under the influence of base effects and downward corrections in the prices of some commodities, as well as under the conditions of a rich domestic harvest and the temporary capping of the trade surcharge on basic food products.

In August, the BNR revised its inflation forecast upwards to 7.5% for the end of this year and to 4.4% for the end of 2024.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that the inflation rate will fall from 7% to 4% at the end of 2024, but remains above the target of the National Bank of Romania.