AmCham: Labour shortage in Romania could reach 224,000 people in 2026, if no measures taken

The labour shortage in Romania could reach 224,000 people in 2026 if no immediate measures are taken, compared to an estimated 145,000 people in 2022, Alex Milcev, member of the Board of Directors of AmCham Romania, told a press conference on Wednesday.

He presented data from an analysis of the economic impact of the labour shortage in Romania. The research was conducted for AmCham Romania by PwC.

According to the report, the economic impact of the labour shortage in 2022, defined as loss of productivity, is estimated at EUR 4.4 billion or 10% of nominal GDP growth in 2022. This amount will double by 2026 and reach EUR 9.5 billion in the absence of measures.

"Given an estimated labour shortage of 145,000 people and an average labour productivity of EUR 30,000 (without taking into account industry or occupation specificities), the economic impact of the labour shortage in terms of lost productivity is EUR 4.4 billion in 2022. By 2026, the economic impact is estimated to reach EUR 9.5 billion," explain the study's authors.

In addition, from the perspective of tax revenues to the state budget, associated with the labour shortage, the authors of the study note an impact of about EUR 1.1 billion for 2022 that may reach EUR 2.4 billion by 2026.

Regarding the inactive population, he pointed out that Romania has many people who could work and could contribute to Romania's economic development, but for various reasons do not contribute.

In his opinion, it is very worrying that two out of ten Romanians aged between 15 and 24 are unemployed, namely. those who have graduated from high school or technical schools or have perhaps even finished university.

However, he stressed that a quick fix would be to attract labour from abroad, from the non-EU area.

According to him, more important but much harder to do is to activate or reactivate a significant pool of talent, those people who are in the country but not in the workforce (unemployed, young and retired).

He pointed out that those young people who are not in education, training or employment - aged between 15 and 24 - total around 350,000 people, representing "a mass of wasted talent at the moment."