The rise in gas prices in Europe is not the result of the blockage in the strait of Hormuz, but of strategic mistakes made over the past ten years, argues Dumitru Chisalita, President of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI), in an analysis published on Wednesday.
'On the first day after the escalation of tensions in Iran, Asia recorded an increase of approximately 24% in LNG prices. Europe nearly doubled that. And this despite the fact that Asia absorbs 70-75% of Qatar's LNG exports, while Europe takes only around 10%. On the second day, price growth in Asia was more moderate, while in Europe the sharp increase continued. Arithmetic does not explain the reaction. Flawed policy does. The European rise in gas prices does not reflect physical dependence on Qatari LNG. It reflects dependence on confidence. Asia receives the majority of volumes and reacts moderately. Europe receives a fraction and reacts in panic. Because real vulnerability is not measured in percentages of imports. It is measured in system stability. After 2022, Europe did not just buy LNG. It bought permanent uncertainty,' the specialist maintains.
According to him, Europe no longer has an anchor, only a market, as after the break with Russian gas in 2022 it replaced a toxic geopolitical dependence with a volatile dependence on global LNG.
In the AEI president's view, in a system where gas sets the marginal price for electricity, an anticipated increase in LNG costs instantly translates into pressure on industry, pressure on inflation and political pressure.
'Europe chose the fully liberalised market model. Without dominant long-term contracts. Without centralised risk control. The result was full integration into the global financial market, correlation with speculative movements and amplified reactions to geopolitical news. Asia operates under a more hybrid, more managed model. Less purely capitalist', but more stable. Europe chose market efficiency. However, it did not build sufficient mechanisms to protect itself against extreme volatility,' the expert underlines.
In the same context, the analyst believes that demonising nuclear energy represents a strategic mistake.
'While France is attempting to recapitalise its nuclear fleet and other European states are reconsidering atomic energy, Germany's decision to shut down operational nuclear power plants increased pressure on gas at precisely the worst possible moment. The result: more gas burned, more LNG and greater volatility,' says Dumitru Chisalita.
The head of AEI argues that it was not Qatar that doubled Europe's volatility, but Europe itself. 'When you shut down stable capacity, fully financialise energy and rely on volatile imports, the market does not forgive. Europe did not just buy LNG. It bought dependence on sentiment. And sentiment is the most expensive fuel of all,' the same source states.
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