A sustained 10% increase in the price of oil would have an annual impact on inflation of around 0.3%, which would completely offset current inflation forecasts, said Cosmin Marinescu, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), on Tuesday.
'The worsening security situation in the Middle East is sharply increasing uncertainty and boosting volatility globally, particularly in energy markets, but also in financial markets, which are highly sensitive to such geopolitical and security shocks. Estimates of the macroeconomic impact of rising oil prices indicate certain contagion risks for European economies, including Romania, and the prospect of a prolonged, large-scale conflict would highlight a propagated and persistent effect. Romania's net dependence on oil imports is lower than in other European economies, amounting to around 1.5% of GDP on average for the period 2022-2024, falling towards 1% of GDP for 2025. Nonetheless, exposure via consumer goods prices remains significant. Our estimates show that a sustained 10% increase in the price of oil would have an annual impact on inflation of around 0.3%, which, unfortunately, would completely negate current inflation forecasts,' Marinescu said at the debate 'Rethink Economics - From Urgent Measures to Development Strategies', organised by Rethink Romania.
He also noted that major investment funds, which are already closely monitoring developments in the Gulf region, may reconsider some of their global exposures.
'As the central bank, we take the issue of fiscal consolidation extremely seriously, including from the perspective of its impact on inflationary pressures and sovereign risk. The scale of budget deficits, coupled with a deterioration of the external balance, requires commensurate adjustment efforts. In 2025, the significant effort to adjust the budgetary position, estimated at 1.3 percentage points of GDP in ESA terms, did not, however, translate into a corresponding reduction of the current account deficit,' Marinescu said.
According to the BNR Deputy Governor, the current account deficit as a share of GDP decreased only slightly, to 7.95% compared with 8.2% of GDP in 2024.
'These are high levels, which also reflect structural deficiencies. But the good news is that coverage of the external deficit from stable, non-debt-generating flows continues to improve during the current year, from 42% in 2025 to an estimated annual level of 57%, thanks to the high inflow of European funds. At the same time, macroeconomic developments in 2025 show that the economy is gradually shifting its sources of growth. According to the latest INS updates, economic growth for 2025 has edged up slightly to 0.7%. We can say that this is a noteworthy economic performance in a year characterised by the pressure of fiscal adjustment measures,' Marinescu added.
He emphasised that the path of economic growth must continue and accelerate through measures to enhance competitiveness in the business environment, in order to achieve a revival in production that shifts the focus from demand to supply, i.e., from consumption to domestic production.
'In this regard, we hope to have the 2026 budget soon, which should send a signal of political and economic stability - a particularly important signal given the complex period we are currently navigating,' Cosmin Marinescu concluded.
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